FirstPick: Outbox or out-grapple, Islam Makhahcev and Dustin Poirier to have topsy-turvy surprises up their sleeves at UFC 302 (2024)

The 155-pound title strap is on the line Saturday at the UFC 302 PPV event. At the top of the bill, lightweight veteran Dustin Poirier tries his luck a third time to snag the gold. Meanwhile, reigning P4P and lightweight king Islam Makhachev defends his guard against a ranking peer for the first time.

The Dagestani’s last title defenses occurred at UFC 284 and UFC 294. The wrestle-heavy southpaw faced former featherweight king Alexander Volknaovski on both occasions. It was a move that faced criticism from many fans and analysts. Now, the #4 lightweight Poirier marks a good change of pace.

The UFC 302 headliner thus opens up a few spots for questions. Will Dustin Poirier be able to snatch the lightweight gold this time? Will Makhchev hold his own against a pronounced lightweight this time?

Oddsmakers and even the most discerningfan following are split among the two. One thing that is not been considered in their prep for Official Fight Week is that both fighters can deliver surprising overturns in tactics. Here’s a deep dive into a few.

Are you not entertained?

Both fighters have proven themselves as entertaining fighters amid the top crops of the stacked division. Dustin Poirier, now 30-8 MMA and 22-7 UFC, has competed in combat sports for the better part of two decades. Yet the veteran does not slow his roll. Many dread that this is his last chance at the undisputed gold; his output and violent finish at UFC 299 would say otherwise.

The underdog flipped the script at the UFC 299 co-mains at Kaseya Center in Miami against Frenchman Benoit Saint-Denis. The former interim champ was a +114 underdog (DraftKings) to #13 ranked Saint-Denis. However, Poirier met Saint Denis’ pressure with accuracy. He even hilariously burst into guillotine chokes, breaking guard often. It is something he cannot find success at despite spamming nonstop.

Meanwhile, Islam Makhahcev is no less surprising. The extreme Combat Sambo practitioner often touts it as his USP. Globally, most kids opt to dabble in soccer, but “in Dagestan, we wrestle,” says the champ. Despite having knockout wins, he has a whooping 11 wins via submissions. Nevertheless, his knockout of Volkanovski remains fresh in people’s minds. Safe to say, this duo has the surprising entertainment factor down.

Wherever the wind blows

Makhachev (25-1 MMA, 14-1 UFC) looks to make his third title defense against the Louisiana native. Undefeated lightweight legend and mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov is a surprise addition to Makhachev’s UFC 302 camp.

Nurmagomedov faced and defeated ‘The Diamond’ via Round 3 submission (RNC) at UFC 242. Many fans and pundits that veer towards the Dagestani are listing this as a repeat of Poirier’s 2019 failed attempts. American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) head coach Javier Mendez and Khabib think otherwise.

Speaking to MMA Junkie’s Danny Segura (MMA Junkie Spanish, for @HablemosMMA), Mendez nudged that while their Sambo discipline and rigor might be the same, Makhachev is a different fighter. ‘The Eagle’ was more ground-oriented, with explosive lean-ins and clinches. He also has a superior top-mount battle IQ, which even Poirier commends.

On the other hand, Makhachev also happens to be a Muay Thai and boxing standout. Despite being wrestle-heavy, the grappler has good separation and ranged attacks. Even Khabib hints at working at a perfect game plan to defend the title. As such, there might just be surprises in store when Poirier falls in for a guillotine.

Change is a good thing

With Khabib himself hitting the bag at the Nick Catone MMA Gym, or the “Nicholas Scott Catone Fitness Training Center,” his protégé is similarly following a strict regimen of short-to-mid-range boxing and extended cardio sessions. The 32-year-old Dagestani is a different beast than his trainer. Khabib had standing instructions from his father, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, to excel in his superior ground control from top mount. On the other hand, Islam Makhachev operates differently.

The American Top Team (ATT) staple is no different. Dustin Poirier holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu under Tim Credeur’s tutelage. He is also a consensus hard-hitter with a boxing-heavy stance. His violent KO of Saint-Denis at UFC 299 tied for the UFC lightweight knockout record [9] with Drew Dober. He has gone win-lose in his last four but remains the divisions’ elite due to his dynamic range.

He is infamous for his shifty punching style and gritty pace of switch-stance shoulder rolls. During the main event feature of UFC 302’s Fight Week “Countdown” Vlog, longtime ATT coach Mike Brown said they have practiced their side of anti-wrestling to provide for more recovery from the bottom position against the Dagestani. All in all, there might be some changes in the positive gradient for both.

Legacy be my witness

By the numbers, Islam Makhcachev is already a prohibitive betting favorite of around 6-1, with a whooping -600 odds. With a win, Makhachev can tie the all-time record for consecutive defenses of the UFC lightweight title. Khabib, Benson Henderson, Frankie Edgar, and B.J. Penn share the stat at three defenses.

The current lightweight champion from Dagestan touts a 12-fight UFC winning streak in the 155-pound class, the most in division history. His 13-win streak is also the longest active record in the active roster. Just behind heavy striker Justin Gaethje, Makhachev averages 61.3 percent significant strike attempts in UFC lightweight competition, a surprising feat for a wrestler.

UFC 302 can prove to be a historic title bout for him. When already down here in the legacy-and-pressure list, nobody at UFC 302 is fighting a harder game than Poirier. By his own admission, this could be his last chance at the undisputed gold. A decade ago, the 25-year-old was a 13-3 UFC featherweight.

Now, the 155-pound stalwart has wins over Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Michael Chandler, and two KOs of Conor McGregor. One of the “good crops,” he even contended for the BMF strap in a violent affair! The lightweight gold adds an extra layer of feat to his already storied history. Hence, he’d give it his all for one last legacy run.

“Undefeated” vs “Undisputed”

Is it better to be “undefeated” or “undisputed”? The word that shoots off the phrase “Undisputed world champion” generally means “undeniable” in context. Is combat sports strictly a numbers game? Is one better off with, say, a 20-0 “Undefeated” stat? Or is it better to be an “Undisputed” people’s champion with a plethora of highlight reels?

Alex Pereira (UFC 281/287/295/300) headlined the same number of PPV cards as Khabib did (UFC 223/229/242/254). Does that diminish the pluck precedent they both have to their name? It does not. Opinions may vary, but both remain fan favorites in their own right.

In this late game, the American is already a sense of an “undisputed” fan favorite. It’s kind of along the line of fan-gags of how ‘The American Gangster‘ Chael Sonnen is undisputed in his highlight banters. Makhachev is 5-0 in his last few; Poirier is 3-2. Even the Dagestani (25-1) has a singular loss to Adriano Martins at UFC 192.

At this stage, an “undisputed” legacy fares better than an “undefeated.” Undefeated gets one through the door into Fight Night grinds, but battle scars are the mark of true champions. Both Makhachev and Poirier have proven that. They’ll do their best once more to prove that.

Verdict: Gilly not Silly

Many fantastic standout fighters have never held a UFC title. Chael Sonnen, Dan Henderson, Urijah Faber, and Donald Cerrone never boasted the shiny hardware. Yet their fame and fandom range worldwide. In regards to those who came close to claiming gold, Poirier has already proven he can be greater.

When Porier fights at UFC 302’s (PPV, ESPN+) main event in Newark, NJ. this weekend, he will have faced every lightweight champion in the last decade, barring Rafael dos Anjos. Anthony Pettis, Alvarez, Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Conor McGregor.

Historical title fight stats show 35-year-olds wash out in their title shot attempts. According to sportsnet.ca, fighters have gone 2-21 in championship bouts contested at 170 pounds or below (not WMMA) and 1-21 against younger fighters. There has been a dramatic benchmark for championship failures after or at 35.

Volkanovski experienced a similar fate when Ilia Topuria upset him. With relentless undying effort and his hilarious fan-pleasing showmanship to go for guillotines, Poirier will always tread ahead among fans. Dustin ‘Diamond’ Poirier can still shine bright with or without the gold.

Having said that, he might also stick around to put an effort into his legacy some more should he win; there’s a high chance he might. UFC 302 marks the first time his daughter, Parker Noelle Poirier, visits one of his matches. Hence, he has some extra motivation while shooting for the gold.

The ‘Diamond’ has already shown that he is equally willing to bend from boxing stances to high explosiveness and break guard. Applying that range of grapples and subjective prepping, the “gilly” might not be so silly after all. With an advanced pre-fight camp, he might have quite a few surprises in store for fans.

Verdict: Wrestler, but also hustler

Is there even a need to say how much input Islam Makhachev puts into the matter? It’s his title at stake, after all. Even if he has never won a pro fight that way, ‘Gilly-fame’ Poirier poses a big challenge ahead. He could equally gas him out or hurt him with definitive striking. Barring Poirier’s interim title victory, he’s 0-2 in UFC lightweight championships. Yet that does not diminish the threat he is to those who have faced him.

For Makhachev, it’s doubly tolling; not only does he fight to defend his gold, but also to pander to fanfare and peer pressure. Fans, and even fighters like Max Holloway, have gibed down his slow turnabouts and lack of dominant wins against top-ranking lightweights. So he has to prove himself on two fronts now.

Title defenses aside, he didn’t play safe throughout. Arman Tsarukyan, Drew Dober, Dan Hooker, Bobby Green, and Oliveira mark prominent names in the lightweight division. ‘Do Bronx’ is an all-around submission and striking phenomenon. Makhachev has proven he can roll out to clinch and stand up to strike equally easily. Come this Saturday, he might be a surprise indeed in his third defense of the gold.

Islam Makhachev-Dustin Poirier Title Fight: By the numbers so far

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